Analytic Culture in the United States Intelligence by Ph.D. Rob Johnston

By Ph.D. Rob Johnston

Identifies and describes stipulations and variables that negatively have an effect on intelligence research. Investigates analytic tradition, technique, errors, and failure in the Intelligence neighborhood. makes use of an utilized anthropological technique that incorporates interviews, direct and player statement, and concentration teams. includes a bibliography.

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Of course, these existing hypotheses are rarely tested each time they are incorporated into new products. What tends to occur is that the analyst looks for current data that confirms the existing organizational opinion or the opinion that 22 FINDINGS seems most probable and, consequently, is easiest to support. As this strategy is also the most time-efficient technique, it reduces the time constraints associated with the daily production cycle. This tendency to search for confirmatory data is not necessarily a conscious choice; rather, it is the result of accepting an existing set of hypotheses, developing a mental model based on previous corporate products, and then trying to augment that model with current data in order to support the existing hypotheses.

They figure that if you just go through the mechanics of writing something, then you must have analyzed it. I don’t know about everybody else, but it doesn’t work that way for me. I need time to think through the problem. Our products have become so specific, so tactical even, that our thinking has become tactical. We’re losing our strategic edge, because we’re so focused on today’s issues. Alternative analysis is a nice concept, but I don’t have the time to do it. I’ve got to keep up with the daily traffic.

See David Brinberg and Joseph McGrath, Validity and the Research Process; Edward Carmines and Richard Zeller, Reliability and Validity Assessment; Jerome Kirk and Marc Miller, Reliability and Validity in Qualitative Research; Mark Litwin, “How to measure survey reliability and validity”; William Trochim, The Research Methods Knowledge Base. 24 FINDINGS We get all kinds of sourced material, but I think I trust technical collection more than the other INTs. I try to use everything we get, but, if we are jammed, I rely on sources we collect.

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